Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Oren Cass in WSJ: "Doomsday Climate Scenarios A Joke?" - Think Again, Sparky!

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The WSJ op-ed ('Doomsday Climate Scenarios Are A Joke', p. A17) makes the usual blunders in assessing the anthropogenic aspects of greenhouse warming on our already over-stressed planet. To remind readers, the temperature of the planet is currently out of balance by 0.6W/ m2  and this is almost entirely due to the annual rate of CO2 concentrations increasing. Every increase in CO2 concentration by 2 ppm increases the radiative heating effect by 2 W/ m2.

Go to climate research centers such as at the Geophysical Institute of the University of Alaska- Fairbanks and you will find atmospheric science researchers examining ice core samples dating from nearly 600,000 yrs. ago showing rising CO2 concentrations coinciding with much warmer periods.
In addition, one has permafrost - bearing methane, as in interior Alaska. When the permafrost melts, the methane can be released. For example, the submerged East Siberian Arctic Shelf contains much of the same stored carbon as the dry tundra to the south but also at least 17 teragrams of methane. (One teragram is equal to one million tons). See e.g.

Into this critical situation (right wing)  Manhattan Institute (and ALEC)  member Oren Cass interjects himself as ostensibly offering a sane and rational viewpoint. In fact, in light of the most recent research on  terrestrial climate thresholds, specifically the existence of a "weathering thermostat" Cass' objections can't be taken seriously - well, except for one, which I will get to.  In terms of the aforementioned thermostat,  “There must be some mechanism that prevents the climate from going completely crazy,” according to Philip Pogge von Strandmann, a geochemist at University College London and lead author of the study.

Indeed, the referenced paper shows for the first time there exists actual empirical support  for a "natural thermostat" that keeps the Earth habitable. The problem is the discovery of said thermostat offers no hope for an escape from humanity's current climate predicament.  While the geological weathering thermostat - affecting rocks like granite - warms and cools the planet on a scale of hundreds of thousands of years, this is far too slow to help moderate the meteoric rise in atmospheric CO2 generated by human activity. The latter, again, is responsible for the mean global temperature being out of balance  by   0.6 W/ m2.    or   a radiative heating effect equivalent to     2.5 x 10 7  TJ injected each year into the atmosphere,  roughly 400,000 Hiroshima size A-bombs.

This must be borne in mind when considering Oren Cass' claim, which amount to yet more cherry-picking to attempt tp paint climate models as unstable, untrustworthy  or outright irrational. But what can one expect from a tool whose' aim is to prop up the likes of global warming arsonist Scott Pruitt at the EPA?  Having said that, Cass is correct regarding his initial point (ibid.)   This is where he cites a 2015 Nature paper, e.g.


which claims:

The findings indicate climate change will widen global inequality, perhaps dramatically, because warming is good for cold countries, which tend to be richer, and more harmful for hot countries, which tend to be poorer. In the researchers’ benchmark estimate, climate change will reduce average income in the poorest 40 percent of countries by 75 percent in 2100, while the richest 20 percent may experience slight gains.

Cass ridicules this analysis as "silly",  which is correct. Not all climate change papers, especially when they veer into economic projections, are sound. By 2100 with our  planet approaching a mean global temperature increase of 4- 6 C,  we will be on the cusp of the runaway greenhouse effect and there will be no "special islands"  of economic growth.  The projected map is shown below:
A new interactive Google Earth map showing the impacts of a 4°C world

 The analysis - such as it is - takes no account of Rayleigh scattering in concert with standard gray atmosphere radiative transport models, e.g.  applicable to the terrestrial atmosphere. The equation of transfer that applies is:

-dI/dt (1/k r ) = I – J

Where k is a mass scattering coefficientr  is the molecular density (e.g. in cloud cover) and J is the vector source function for a specific intensity I. If the correct Stokes parameters (I, Q, U, V) which describe degree of polarization are included, and the appropriate incidence angle of radiation, we can expect the propagation of radiant energy from the S. hemisphere to the north very effectively.  The planet will hence come to a uniform warming that impacts all economies as well as economies of scale.   My point is that Cass' citing of this loopy paper doesn't prove doomsday scenarios of warming are daft or not applicable.

His next gambit is to cite an EPA study that "assumes that a day counting as unusually hot for some city in 2000 will cause a similar mortality increase in that city in 2100 even if climate change makes it no longer unusual."  Adding:

"The result is a projection that a hot day will kill massive numbers in Northern cities by 2100 - though such temperatures are already routine at lower latitudes with no such ill effects."

Huh? Is he living on the same planet?  Is he forgetting the deadly Indian heat wave that killed hundreds in 2002? See e.g.



"India baked today in a heat wave so intense that mud huts became as hot as ovens and birds in trees dropped dead, villagers said. Temperatures 7 percent above the already hot normal have killed more than 600 people nationwide this month."

By 2100, given a 4-6 C increase in mean global temperatures an Indian heat wave will likely see daily 135- 150 F temperatures and especially failing to cool below 110-120 F at night, which will lead to the most deaths, as is par for nearly all such events. It is not inconceivable a death toll in the same region could tally over 10,000 - possibly as high as 20,000.

Cass next looks at a "second study" from the American Climate Prospectus, contradicting a "first study"  (covering 1968-2002) during which hot days, e.g. over 90F caused higher morality. This second study "found mortality rates on hot days declined precipitously" and because of the adoption of air conditioning,  "The United Sates is well adapted to the high temperature-related mortality impacts of climate change".  

Two critical aspects overlooked by this happy babble are:

-  Collapse of power grids and energy infrastructure, i.e. from being unable to meet demand in a climate where 130- 140 F is hit in most cities around the world daily.

- Associated collapse of utility electrical pumping stations, i.e. to provide enough water for a much larger population. (because electric power is needed to pump water for use)

In combination, these factors will engender massive deaths from disease, especially if potable water isn't available.  Absence of safe water sources, especially, dramatically enhances the chance of getting water-borne diseases including (in the runaway greenhouse cusp world) amoebic dysentery and cholera.  Absence of electrical power further increases risk of diseases spreading especially given lack of refrigeration  in heat wave conditions (see also the link at the end of this post). 

This leads to Cass' next error which is to hype the human ability for adaptation "which is not an esoteric detail for science and economics".   He argues that "if you imagine that society is static and incapable of innovation then prospect of climate change must be terrifying."

Well true, but that doesn't mean useful  innovation and adaptation are inevitable. For example, I already dealt with a number of impractical "innovations" i.e. from the authors of 'Super Freakonomics', here:


Less commonly addressed is the inevitable spread of tropical diseases including cholera, dengue fever and worm parasite infestations, e.g.

Thus, millions more tapeworm cyst infections of human brains in affected areas  can be expected- perhaps four fifths of the population of Earth by 2100. Yes, adaptation is possible but requires enormous supplies of anti-worm serums, meds such as Ketrax. I recall here my own worm infestation while in Peace Corps - noticed only after being awakened one night by intense itching and a twitching sensation on the inner thighs. I switched the night light on and spotted wriggling movements in discrete locations on the skin, I realized the worms would spread if I didn't act. The cure? Ketrax, prescribed by the spoonful (by a dermatologist) three times a day. After a few bouts of vomiting out the vermin  (visible wriggling in the vomit), all had been eliminated. I don't know that people will even be properly diagnosed as multiple worm infestations spread on approaching the cusp of the runaway greenhouse.

Finally, Oren delivers a lot of happy talk at the end, writing:

"The 1970s fear of impending limits to growth made sense, assuming that society could not expand a finite supply of resources."

But see, that's precisely it. Earth does have a finite supply of resources which by definition means that can't be "expanded", i.e. beyond that finite allotment.  To fix ideas,  we're rapidly approaching the threshold at which there will simply be too many people to feed given existing resources- water, arable soil, fertilizers etc.. The projections now are for at least 10 billion people by 2050, and an 80 percent probability of 12.3 billion on Earth by 2100. Simply put, there simply aren't the resources to support even the lower addition. At root, the issue is sustainability - especially for water which is needed for crops. NO water, no crops to feed a growing population. The graphic below puts this into perspective;

The interpretation of the graph (upward) is simple. By June, 2030 TWO full Earths - that is the resources therein - will be needed to support the then population. Already we are at 1.5 Earths. Every year Global Footprint Network raises awareness about global ecological overshoot with its Earth Overshoot Day campaign. Earth Overshoot Day is the day on the calendar when humanity has used up the resources that it takes the planet the full year to regenerate. Just like the hands of the  'doomsday clock'  approaching 'midnight' for nuclear cataclysm

The continually increasing population is also acerbating the problem of finding and implementing adequate (aggressive consumption) fuel -energy sources is . Global energy consumption rose from barely 21 EJ in 1900, to 318 EJ in 1988, to close to 400 EJ today. Solar, geothermal + wind by the end of this year, will therefore have contributed only:

(6/ 400) x 100% = 1.5% of the total global demand

But this is exactly the rate of increase in global population per year! In other words, the added total alternative energy benefit is exactly lost because we added an extra percentage of humans to consume the benefit!  This is why the economists proposing increased global population to enhance GDP are shooting themselves in the foot.

The stage is set to add 50% MORE humans by 2050, topping off at 10 billion, which will necessitate - if we still plan to retain solar in the mix - converting an area the size of Europe to solar panel arrays. In addition, to feed all those hungry mouths, we will need to add an agricultural area the size of the whole continent of South America - especially given how the eating habits of Chinese and Indians have now altered to become more "American" .
Whether Cass wants to admit it r not, we are constrained by limits to growth - perhaps not now at 7.5 billion humans, but definitely by the time we add another 2.5b and need an additional Earth to support them.

See also this  article on why heat waves are so deadly:


Monday, March 19, 2018

First Clue, Sherlock: Do Not Use Hate Attacks On The Parkland FL Survivors

Mainer Leslie Gibson, learned the hard way to keep his yap shut about insulting shooting survivors.

Most brane space readers would likely never have heard of Leslie Gibson,  a former  Reepo lawmaker from Maine's hinterlands who looks like a human cloning experiment (using a Moose's uterus)  gone bad.

Gibson has been under fire the past week for comments he made online about two teens (David Hogg and Emma Gonzalez)  who survived the Valentine’s Day massacre at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School.   What provoked this inbred (or cloned, using a female Moose) ignoramus we can't say.  It's always difficult to tell with inbreds, partial Moose offspring, or knuckle draggers. But I suspect it was Ms. Gonzalez'  buzz cut hairdo and Mr. Hogg's articulate activism on behalf of controlling AR-15s and other military style weapons.

Whatever the trigger, this since rapidly retired asswipe from Maine's state house  can now repent at leisure.  Well, maybe so long as he keeps his twitter feed private.  Evidently the poor little misfit has been taking savage blowback on twitter since calling  Emma Gonzalez a "skinhead lesbian,"  and David Hogg "a bald faced liar."  (Ms. Gonzalez has since clarified she  accepts a bisexual sexual identity. In either case, lesbian or bisexual, it is of the most sordid hate to take her to task for her sexual choices. )

Unable to withstand the backlash he's  taken his Twitter feed private. Apparently, he's been miffed and appalled at all the mean things people were posting there: But what did this former lawmaker expect when you - as an elected pol - assume the role of a common bully and vilify kids whose school just endured the worst high school shooting in U.S. history?  Did he really seriously think he'd garner plaudits and kudos? Especially after going after a teen student's physical appearance.

How badly did this asshole blow himself up? Gibson had been cruising toward an unopposed election in the  particular Maine district, which included two hamlets,  Sabattus and Greene. But his comments stirred both a moderate Reep (Thomas Martin Jr.) and Democrat  Eryn Gilchrist to join the contest. As Martin put it:

“There’s enough division in our state and country already without ramping up the rhetoric,"

Yeppers, and Trump, aka Dotard or Hitler Jr. provides much of it.

So, "hoping to restore some peace and quiet in our lives,", Gibson  has abandoned his effort to win a state House seat. I'm sure a lot of Mainers are keenly disappointed but they are more than likely of the "basket of deplorables"  kind that would agree with his slander about Emma Gonzalez.

Among the last comments from this mutant - or human cloned via a Moose- was this offered to the Maine media:

I am not walking away with my head hung low. I am walking away with my head held high,” 

Whatever. The point is you are walking away with your (Moose?) tail between your legs.

Interestingly, Gibson is said to have made the decision after talking with his family, praying and discussing it with friends and colleagues, including Thomas Martin Jr. of Greene, the GOP contender who entered the 57th District race Thursday.

It’s the best thing for everybody,” Gibson said. Well it certainly may be\for Martin with whom he "talked it over".  ("Uh yeah, Mr. Moose face, I totally agree it is best to bow out now. Oh, and take your prayers and Moose face with ya!")

As for "prayers' - mayhap Mr. Moose face, errr... Gibson, might still be in the thick of it had he prayed BEFORE he opened up on the two teen Parkland FL survivors. Yuh think?

Gibson has since "apologized" for his comment, but he'll also have to make another one when his Democratic opponent grabs his seat in the Maine House. .

"Hitler Junior" Careens Toward The Hangman's Noose After Latest Performance

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"When the full extent of your venality, moral turpitude, and political corruption becomes known, you will take your rightful place as a disgraced demagogue in the dustbin of history. You may scapegoat Andy McCabe, but you will not destroy America...America will triumph over you. " Twitter text from former CIA chief John Brennan after Trump gloated over Andy McCabe's firing before he could resign.

"If you really are innocent, and think there is no collusion, then ACT like it!"  - Trey Gowdy (R, SC) yesterday on Face the Nation

"I wonder where Republicans are right now in terms of showing some courage, not about party but about right and wrong." - Mika Brzenzski, 'Morning Joe'

"I think we're dangerously close to a constitutional crisis. I think the president is doing something that no CEO of a Fortune 500 would do. Can you imagine a senior CEO tweeting about one of his senior VP's "Ninety more days to go until his retirement! Ha! Ha! Ha!" And then the guy gets fired? They'd throw him out of the company. We've crossed that red line a long time ago."   -  Sophia A Nelson, former GOP Counsel,  House Oversight Committee, on 'Morning Joe' this a.m.

Picking up on the last quote from Sophia Nelson, more bold red lines were crossed by Adolf Hitler Jr. over the weekend ending with blistering and foolish attacks on Mueller himself and paving the way for this bastard's fat neck to be put into the hangman's noose. That is,  the total indictment on obstruction of justice compliments of Bob Mueller, a rock-ribbed Republican, I might add. Though fucktard Drumpf seemed to miss that memo in one of his tweets claiming there were no Republicans on Mueller's team.

And yes, before continuing, I refer to Drumpf (aka Trump) as Hitler Jr. based on a previous analysis I did comparing their mental and other profiles, e.g.


Most of us- and that includes former CIA chief John Brennan- didn't believe Trump,  though deplorable and detestable beyond the most f-bomb replete descriptors, would sink to the degenerate level beheld by the end of yesterday. Especially the initial vicious and vindictive firing of former FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe .  But as vile as that cowardly act was (using threats to Sessions to do it or else) it was his subsequent gloating that roiled Brennan - and also had wifey screaming for Drumpf's head, e.g. "How could this piece of shit do that to an honorable man who worked 20 years at the bureau, destroying his pension?" She then pounded her recliner several times for emphasis while mumbling something about Trump needing a bout with "Neegan" and an entity called "Lucille".

Trying to provide cover for this illegitimate slimeball, the WSJ editorial today ('The McCabe March Madness', p. A 16) emphasized all of Drumpf's detractors (including "Obama's CIA chief Brennan") had missed the memo that the DOJ's own Inspector General and the FBI's Office of Personal Responsibility (OPR) had agreed on McCabe's firing.  (Maybe, but not 24 hrs. before he's due to receive his damned pension!)   In the OPR case, the findings were rushed and not substantive. Almost certainly, Jeff Sessions ended up twisting arms for Trump in order to get the OPR on board.

 This is  also definitely something Trump would have personally pushed for given he'd been rubbing McCabe's face in the dirt with such threats for months. (See the last quotation at top from Sophia Nelson)

Trump had  also applauded the firing of McCabe as a “great day for democracy”., which the same WSJ editorial had described as Trump "too self-involved for restraint" e.g. to allow the dismissal to "speak for itself".  But after defending their Hitler wannabe 'x' times they ought to know his M.O. by now;  he's an idiot asswipe,  a former reality TV con man and pseudo-billionaire who fancies himself a dictator a la Hitler, and above the reach of law)  So no wonder his infernal gloating was too much for John Brennan, who reacted to the unconcealed glee by calling Trump a “disgraced demagogue” headed for “the dustbin of history”.   The full tweet in all its articulate beauty and verbal precision is given at the top of this post.

Former federal prosecutor Patrick Cotter described the firing this way to the WaPo:

 “I would add that for me, and I think many former law enforcement personnel, it is difficult to recall any precedent for the kind of personal vindictiveness the action by the executive exhibits towards a career FBI agent like McCabe, except from the longtime targets of federal law enforcement, like the mob or drug cartels,”


'With those criminals, I noted that their hate was personal towards the agents and attorneys they thought were building cases against them. This move strikes me as very similar.”

McCabe himself didn't mince words in a statement later:

This attack on my credibility is one part of a larger effort not just to slander me personally, but to taint the FBI, law enforcement, and intelligence professionals more generally, It is part of this administration’s ongoing war on the FBI and the efforts of the special counsel investigation, which continue to this day. Their persistence in this campaign only highlights the importance of the special counsel’s work.”

To top it off we beheld Trump’s personal lawyer (John Dowd) saying -  in a statement first provided to the Daily Beast on Saturday -  that he “prayed” Rosenstein,  who oversees special counsel Robert Mueller, “will follow the brilliant and courageous example of the FBI Office of Professional Responsibility [OPR] and attorney general Jeff Sessions and bring an end to alleged Russia collusion investigation manufactured by McCabe’s boss James Comey based upon a fraudulent and corrupt dossier”

Seriously? Can Dowd truly be that  stupid, or is he just begging for an obstruction of justice charge slapped on his own sorry ass?   As one commentator put it on Lawrence O'Donnell's 'Last Word' Friday night, it's difficult to conceive how Dotard's legal team could be so rife with bozos and incompetents who insist on shooting themselves in the foot - including the turkey that is filing suit against  Stormy Daniels -  while admitting Trump was the "Dennison" that never signed  his 'John Hancock' to the "silence" (e.g. NDA) agreement. Which, as Sophia Nelson - former counsel to the House Oversight Committee- put it, carries no weight at all.

Nonetheless, the fierce words from former spy chief Brennan clearly struck fear into Dowd who proceeded to backtrack  saying he was “speaking for myself not the president”.  In other words, letting his mouth sign a  check his ass couldn't "cash".   He also  'fessed up to the AP how he let his bravado and beer talk run ahead of his brain, admitting he wasn't "really" calling on Rosenstein to fire the Special Counsel "immediately", nor was he discussing the idea of firing Mueller or ending the probe.  Who'da thunk? 

He added  the qualifier that the investigation should be ended “on the merits in light of recent revelations”.  But anyone who's followed this case, from the Clinton emails, to the hyped up conspiracy memes surrounding the Steele dossier to the role of Devin Nunes in leaking classified files to undermine Mueller, knows damned well the so-called "revelations"  are hot air bilge and balderdash. They carry about as much freight as the "Pizzagate" nonsense circulated in 2016, accusing  Hillary of keeping child sex slaves in the basement of a D.C. pizza parlor. Personally, I believe all the degenerates that circulated that inane tripe ought to be permanently hooked up to electro-shock machines indefinitely.

The firing of McCabe itself was a blatant effort to try to short circuit the Mueller probe by impugning the credibility of a key person. Its inherently vile nature was revealed in Drumpf's gloating over it and gleefully anticipating McCabe's loss of pension. As former Mueller aide Chuck Rosenberg put it on Morning Joe,  "It's disgusting and depraved".    This is something  so gratuitously vicious  that even Trump's putative steel worker followers ought to be aghast: being fired by a narcissist boss or CEO just before eligibility for a pension. It's basically near the lowest rung of the totem poll for human behavior with only murder, bestiality and child molestation coming in lower.

But thanks to having a sixth sense of Drumpf's  impending treachery, McCabe had the prescience to keep notes and turned all over to Mueller. These  included when Trump called him into his office and made snide references about his wife and Hillary. All of those notes will now join James Comey's in being grist for Robert Mueller's investigation, i.e. the hangman's noose. Of course, Traitor Trump is terrified which is why he's tried to dismiss McCabe's notes as  "fake memos". He should be so lucky.

Matt Miller, a former top Justice Department official in the Obama administration, noted that McCabe has already spoken to special counsel Robert S. Mueller's team and that he would have shared anything he knew about allegedly illegal actions. But Miller said that doesn't mean there isn't more McCabe might share — particularly now that he could file suit over his termination.   Miller added to the WaPo:

There are a host of inappropriate actions by the president that don't necessarily rise to the level of criminality that McCabe may feel obliged to disclose publicly now, It's very much in McCabe's interests to reveal any inappropriate actions by the president that he was aware of because it helps make his case that he was fired for political reasons. He may do that in interviews, and he may do it in a lawsuit he brings over his firing.”

"Disgraced demagogue" sums up the character of this piece of shit  with whom we're saddled  as "president" but also traitor. Indeed, just as the news of Andy McCabe's  firing was coming over the transom Friday night, O'Donnell had retired 4 star Gen. Barry McCaffrey on the phone, basically calling Trump out as a goddamned traitor. His words from his phone call:

Reluctantly I have concluded that President Trump is a serious threat to U.S. national security. He is refusing to protect vital U.S. interests from active Russian attacks. It is apparent that he is for some unknown reason under the sway of Mr Putin.

In other words, he's saying what we already know: Trump is a fucking traitor who deserves to be hanged.  But as I noted, in the olden days in Cromwell's England - demagogue or no - he'd be hung, drawn and quartered, i.e. first partially hung, then disemboweled, then each limb chopped off in turn - first the arms then the legs. Everything, including the head, then tossed into a huge pyre - maybe leaving only a few teeth.

The Trump backers may feel elated at all this and love that Dotard appears to be sowing more TDS or "Trump derangement syndrome"  but they'd be foolish to believe so. Indeed, as the weekend WSJ editorial noted ('The Trump Tariff Layoff Begins', p. A12):

"American Keg Company has only used domestic steel. But now it's being punished for this domestic sourcing as Donald Trump's steel tariffs have forced the business to lay off a third of its work force."

A third of its work force now unemployed thanks to their hero Dotard, who promised more jobs, not less. And that's only the beginning. This degenerate not only prides himself and gloats about taking away a man's pension, but also taking away thousands of his voters' jobs - after they put all their trust into his hollow word. Or as NY Times columnist Maureen Dowd put it (Mar. 17):

He is no longer bothering to pretend that governing involves a learning curve. Now he finds it’s clever to be a fabulist, concocting phony facts about the trade deficit when talking to the Canadian prime minister — one of our closest allies — or inventing a story for donors about how Japanese officials test American cars by dropping a bowling on their hoods from 20 feet up to see which ones dent.

One good thing we learned since the firing of Andy McCabe, before he could properly retire with his pension, is he can still get it back in full. All he needs is to work one (1) extra day in some governmental service capacity . I understand at least one Dem lawmaker is prepared to offer him that 1- day job.

In the meantime, serious citizens can certainly now see that every reckless tweet and misfire from this odious animated excrement will be another nail pounded into his coffin, if not compliment of Robert S. Mueller then via impeachment when the House is taken back in eight months. Or, as congressman Eric Smalwell put it:

Gloat now, but you will be fired soon. And it’s not going to be done cowardly, as you’ve done to so many who’ve served you. There’s a storm gathering, Mr. President, and it’s going to wipe out you and your corrupt organization all the way down to the studs. 

See also:



"The magnitude of outrage over the truly contemptible McCabe Affair can be measured by John Brennan's reaction. Merely a year or two ago, could anyone have envisioned that a former director of the CIA would aim such a fireball of loathing at a sitting president of the United States?"